Much damage has already been done, and even the best-case scenarios have students half a grade-level behind in June. The immediate priority is to prevent further learning loss through a combination of bringing students back to school where it is safe to do so and improving remote learning across the board. While we may not be able to control the virus without an effective vaccine, we are more prepared to deal with its consequences.

While all students are suffering, those who came into the pandemic with the fewest academic opportunities are on track to exit with the greatest learning loss. Students of color could be six to 12 months behind, compared with four to eight months for white students. While the worst-case scenarios from the spring may have been averted, the cumulative learning loss could be substantial, especially in mathematics-with students on average likely to lose five to nine months of learning by the end of this school year. Looking forward, we consider several different scenarios to estimate the total potential learning loss to the end of this academic year in June 2021. Left unaddressed, these opportunity gaps will translate into wider achievement gaps. However, Black and Hispanic students continue to be more likely to remain remote and are less likely to have access to the prerequisites of learning-devices, internet access, and live contact with teachers. States and school districts have made significant efforts to close the digital divide and improve remote learning, and the implementation of school-based health and safety precautions enabled some students to return to classrooms in the fall (although some of these gains are now at risk as COVID-19 cases spike across the country). The picture for reading is more positive, with students starting school just a month and a half behind historical averages. Students of color were about three to five months behind in learning white students were about one to three months behind. We now share assessment data from this fall, which show that students, on average, started school about three months behind where we would expect them to be in mathematics. In the spring, we examined how school shutdowns were likely to compound racial disparities in learning and achievement, analyzing the toll on learning, dropout rates, and the overall economy. McKinsey partner Jimmy Sarakatsannis describes key insights from this article.

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